Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
